Concentration and Unpredictability of Forecasts in Artificial Investment Games: An Online Experiment on WeChat-厦门大学金融系

Concentration and Unpredictability of Forecasts in Artificial Investment Games: An Online Experiment on WeChat
主讲人 Xiaojian Zhao 简介 <p>This paper is the first to explore the WeChat platform, one of the largest social media, to conduct an online experiment of artificial investment games. We investigate how people's forecasts about financial market are shaped by the environment, in which people interact before making investment decisions. Our treatments manipulate whether subjects can observe others' forecasts and whether subjects engage in public or private investment decisions. We find that subjects' forecasts significantly converge when shared, though in different directions across groups. Thus, information sharing does not necessarily lead to a better decision. We also observe a strong positive correlation between forecasts and investments, suggesting that an individual's reported forecast is associated with his belief.&nbsp;</p>
时间 2017-10-19(Thursday)16:40-18:00 地点 N302, Econ Building
讲座语言 English 主办单位 WISE&SOE
承办单位 类型 系列讲座
联系人信息 主持人 Maoliang Ye
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主讲人简介 <p>Prof. Zhao is Associate Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), he worked as Assistant Professor of Economics at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Prof. Zhao gets his Ph.D. from University of Mannheim. His research interests include Contract Theory, Applied Microeconomics, Psychology and Economics, Experimental Economics. He has published his research articles in top ranking international journals such as Review of Economics Studies.</p> <p>Please click <span style="color: rgb(51, 153, 102);"><a href="/Upload/File/2017/9/20170919050605672.pdf">Prof. Zhao's CV</a></span> for more information.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> 期数 “WISE-SOE”高级经济学系列讲座2017秋第三讲(总第387讲)
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