| 主讲人 |
黄寿峰教授 |
简介 |
<p><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">本文通过理论模型和实证检验，</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><wbr></wbr>分析了中国人口年龄结构对中国省级人民币实际有效汇率的影响。<wbr></wbr>理论模型表明，人口年龄结构会通过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">需求结构</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">经常项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><wbr></wbr>及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">劳动生产率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">这三种机制影响实际汇率。而后，本文测算了中国<wbr></wbr>省级实际有效汇率，<wbr></wbr>并据此实证检验了中国人口年龄结构对人民币实际有效汇率的影响，<wbr></wbr>实证结果显示：人口年龄结构会显著影响人民币实际有效汇率；<wbr></wbr>在三种作用机制中，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">劳动生产率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">机制起主导作用，<wbr></wbr>劳动人口占比（人口总抚养比）的上升会通过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">劳动生产率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><wbr></wbr>机制导致人民币实际有效汇率显著升值（贬值），而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">需求结构</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”<wbr></wbr></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">机制及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">经常项目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">机制均表现不显著。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> |
