| 主讲人 |
郭豫媚 博士 |
简介 |
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:20.1pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0;line-height:125%;layout-grid-mode:char;mso-layout-grid-align:none"><b><span style="font-family:黑体">内容提要</span></b><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">：</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">沟通已成</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">为发</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">达国家央行引</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">导</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">市</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">场预</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">期的主要方式，那么央行究竟是否</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">应该进</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">行沟通，央行沟通是否能</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">够</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">提高</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">货币</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">政策的有效性？</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">为</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">回答上述</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">问题</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">，本文在适</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">应</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">性学</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">习</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">框架下，构建了一个包含央行公共信息和公众私人信息的</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">动态</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">随机一般均衡模型，刻画了央行沟通影响公众学</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">习</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">和</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">预</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">期的</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">传导</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">机制。不</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">仅</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">弥</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">补</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">了已有相关文献中</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">对</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">公众</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">预</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">期形成机制刻画不足的缺陷，而且从适</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">应</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">性学</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">习</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">角度</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">为</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">解</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">释</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">央行沟通提高</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">货币</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">政策有效性提供了一条新机制。研究</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">发现</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">，央行的公共信息会</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">挤</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">出公众的私人信息，公众在形成</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">预</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">期</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">时倾</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">向于加大</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">对</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">央行公共信息的</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">权</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">重，</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">这</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">使得央行公共信息的准确度</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">对</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">于沟通的效果</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">产</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">生重要影响。当央行的公共信息比私人信息更准确</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">时</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">，央行沟通能</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">够</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">使福利</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">损</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">失降低</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">15%</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">，并且央行信息准确度越高，央行沟通越能降低福利</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">损</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">失、提高</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">货币</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">政策有效性。</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">进</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">一步的数</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">值</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">模</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">拟</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">研究表明，当央行的公共信息不如私人信息准确</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">时</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">，央行沟通反而会增加福利</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">损</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">失。因此，</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">对</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">于目前仍不</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">够</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">重</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">视</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">沟通的中国央行而言，</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">应</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">在提高信息准确度的基</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">础</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">上重</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">视</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">并加</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">强</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">与市</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">场</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">的沟通，从而提高</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">货币</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">政策有效性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:20.1pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0;line-height:125%;layout-grid-mode:char;mso-layout-grid-align:none"><b><span style="font-family:黑体">关</span></b><b><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">键词</span></b><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">：</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">央行沟通<span lang="EN-US"> </span>适</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">应</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">性学</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">习</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体"> </span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体">货币</span><span style="font-family:"仿宋_GB2312",serif;mso-fareast-font-family:仿宋_GB2312;mso-hansi-font-family:宋体">政策<span lang="EN-US"> </span>公共信息<span lang="EN-US"> </span>私人信息</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> |
