| 主讲人 |
李旻文博士 |
简介 |
We measure two types of uncertainty shocks, risk and ambiguity, through textual analysis of
corporate annual 10-K reports, and examine their implications on the ecosystem of corporate
policies. We find that risk shocks lead to simultaneous negative adjustments in leverage,
investment, employment and payout, and positive adjustment in cash holdings. The
economically significant impact of risk shocks persists for years, and is stronger for firms
with smaller size, lower credit ratings, and negative earnings. Not all policies respond to
positive and negative risk shocks symmetrically, i.e., firms appear not to increase payout and
reduce cash holdings after risk level reduces. In contrast, ambiguity shocks only lead to
short-term reduction in leverage, which could be partially caused by shrinking external
credit supply. Managers appear to adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy until ambiguity resolves.
Keywords: Risk, ambiguity, leverage, investment, employment, payout, cash holdings |
