发表期刊：Journal of Futures Markets
发表时间：October 2025
作者及单位：Fuwei Jiang(School of Economics, Wangyanan Institute for Economic Studies, Xiamen University), Kunpeng Li, Lingchao Meng, Bowen Xue*(School of Economics, Wangyanan Institute for Economic Studies, Xiamen University), Massimo Massa，Lei Zhang
摘要：To track real economic activity in a timely manner, we construct a Narrative Daily Economic Condition Index. The economicnarratives from the full text content of one million Wall Street Journal articles are decomposed into interpretable topic timeseries. The resulting indicator captures the business cycle and the movement of economic output measures well. The empiricalapplications show that the resulting indicator captures real‐time economic fluctuations and contributes to predicting marketvolatility and interest rates, which can significantly benefit real‐time policy making and investment decisions. Our resultshighlight the informativeness and timeliness of economic news for assessing the state of the economy.
关键词：economic condition; economic news; news topics; nowcasting; textual analysis
