发表期刊：Journal of Regional Science
发表时间：July 2026
作者及单位：Qingfeng Cai (School of Economics, Xiamen University), Jinyuan Xie, Guangjun Shen, Jingxian Zou*
摘要：While previous studies on infrastructure mainly focus on its benefits, this study instead examines the costs associated with infrastructure projects. Specifically, it explores the impact of subway construction on corporate tax burdens, a micro-level variable closely tied to business operations. Using firm-level data from China (2008-2020), this study finds that subway construction significantly increases the effective tax rates on local firms. Mechanism analysis reveals that heightened local fiscal pressure and surging implicit debts prompt local governments to raise effective tax rates by reducing tax rebates and fiscal subsidies to firms. Additionally, evidence of strengthened tax enforcement and reduced corporate tax evasion aligns with the observed increase in firms’ effective tax rates. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the tax rate increase mainly affects firms under the jurisdiction of local tax bureaus rather than those governed by national tax bureaus, indicating that local governments are the primary decision-makers behind the tax hikes. Moreover, the tax-increasing effect is more pronounced in cities with lower economic growth rates and lower population density, both of which indicate a greater tendency to shift the burden onto firms. Finally, an extended analysis reveals the complex effects of subway construction on firms. For incumbent firms, despite the increased tax burden, profitability, investment, and employment have all risen, suggesting a net positive impact of subway construction. However, adverse effects of increased firm exit are also observed. This paper provides a more comprehensive perspective on the cost-benefit assessment of infrastructure construction.
关键词：effective tax rate, fiscal imbalance, infrastructure, tax avoidance
